Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, presented the brand new Tesla Roadster togheter with the new Tesla's truck, called Semi, and promised the Roadster will be put on sale starting from 2020. He also declared that this model can travel for 1000km, that it can accelerate from 0 to 100 km/h in 1.9s and that it can reach 400 km/h. Here are 5 reasons why the electric powered car can't now achieve those goals.
1. Tesla's factory and financial problems.
Tesla's quotation on the stock exchange is higher than Ford Motor Company's one: Tesla is worth 50-55 billion $, but in the third quarter of 2017 the factory lost 671 million $. The factory of Palo Alto has never had a positive economic balance, and the losses has always been higher than the earnings. In the third quarter of 2017 only 260 specimens of Tesla Model 3 were produced, while Elon Musk promised that whitin the end of 2017 Tesla would have produced 1500 Model 3s. This shows the operative production problems of te factory, and it's very difficult that all the problems will be solved within 2020 and will guarantee the production of the Model 3, Model X, Model S, Roadster, Semi, and maybe other models. In case of that, Tesla will have to buy other buildings to produce more cars. This will cause economic losses
2. 0-100km/h in 1.9s: possible or impossible?
If the car will have the appearences we've seen, impossible. In fact it will need an incredible grip, and it should be able to download all the power to the ground. The car we've seen on the images doesn't seem to develop much downforce, which is crucial to have a 1.9s 0-100km/h. Then we must consider the mass/power ratio. For example, the Porsche 918 Spyder has a 2.56s 0-100km/h and its mass/power ratio is almost 2; Quattroruote has analized the ratio and the acceleration of a lot of cars, and found a mathematical curve which shows that, if you want to have a 2s 0-100km/h, you must have a mass/power ratio of 1, but the italian magazine has also seen that there is a sort of "wall" that doesn't allow to achieve a 2s or less 0-100 unless you have a 1000kg or less car. The Roadster should weigh 1000kg, which is impossible, considering that all the batteries to have a 1.9s 0-100km/h should weigh 800kg.
3. 400km/h in an electric car: possible or impossible?
The same words as before: if the car will have the appearences we've seen, impossible. The aerodynamics required to travel at 400km/h does not exist in the Roadster we've seen. Another problem is the over-heating of electric batteries, but this is not such a difficult obstacle to overcome.
4. 1000km autonomy range: possible or impossible?
With the current batteries it's not impossible, but they would weigh 1300kg or more, because the current average energy density is 150 Wh/kg, and this value could become 250 Wh/kg whitin 2020, which means the weigh would go down to 800kg. With this value the 1.9s 0-100km/h acceleration is not possible. The 1000km autonomy would become possible maybe with solid batteries (graphite), but this is a sour technology and their autonomy has not been proved yet.
5. Four seats
How can you combine all the goals with 4 seats? Only Elon Musk knows. Of course in an electric car much space is not filled by the thermic engine, but the aerodynamics doesn't like 4 seats.
Comment below if you don't agree with some statements, I hope you'll enjoy this analysis.