Is Lewis Hamilton The Greatest Qualifier Ever?
Hamilton's mega lap in Singapore has revived an interesting debate
Two tenths. Just two tenths of a second was the difference between Lewis Hamilton making it through to Q2 and an embarrassing Q1 exit. Mercedes, lacking sets of hypersoft tyres, decided to take a gamble and sent both of their drivers out on ultrasoft tyres. As expected they were considerably slower but fortunately for him and Mercedes their blushes were spared and he squeezed through.
It is a good thing he did make it through as we were then treated to one of the greatest qualifying laps of Hamilton's career. Going into Q3 it seemed as if Ferrari had the advantage and that Hamilton would instead have to stave off the threat of Red Bull. As it happened, Hamilton went over half a second quicker than both Ferrari drivers and over three tenths clear of nearest rival Max Verstappen. It was a scintillating lap, delivered at just the right time.
Pundits and fans alike knew they had witnessed something very special indeed and it didn't take long for one debate to surface. Is Lewis Hamilton the greatest qualifier of all-time? He might have the most pole positions ever, but there are plenty who would offer up other names.
My opinion? Lewis Hamilton is not the greatest qualifier of all-time. That distinction belongs to Ayrton Senna.
I can understand the case for Hamilton, equally I can understand the cases for Juan Manuel Fangio and Jim Clark, but I cannot look past Senna's qualifying record. It is astonishingly good. His 65 pole positions might be fewer than the 79 accumulated by Hamilton, but once you properly delve into the numbers, it becomes clear.
There are a couple of statistics that stand out. Firstly, let's take a look at how many pole positions their teammates achieved when they were in the same car. Both Senna and Hamilton have had quality teammates (Prost, Alonso, Button, Berger, Rosberg) so this comparison makes sense.
Hamilton's teammates have a collective total of 38 pole positions. A decent tally, but some way behind the 79 he has. By comparison how many pole positions did Ayrton Senna's teammates get? 9. Not even double figures. Over Senna's entire career, his teammates got a collective total of nine pole positions. It is more impressive the more you think about it.
Another thing to bear in mind is the amount of times each driver was outqualified in their career. In all, Hamilton has been outqualified 83 times in his career and in every season, he's been outqualified at least 5 times. Ayrton Senna demolishes that record, he was outqualified just 18 times in his career (an average of under twice per season) and has never been outqualified more than 4 times in one season. Senna's 12-4 qualifying record over Gerhard Berger in 1990 was his WORST YEAR.
Across his entire career, Hamilton has achieved pole position in 35% of his races, but he has always had a car capable of getting the job done. Of course there are certain years where it was much more difficult. 2010 and 2011 are prime examples, but his years at Mercedes more than made up for that. Senna had virtually no chance when he was at Toleman and his later McLarens were pedestrian compared to the dominant Williams cars. Overall, I would say Senna had the dominant qualifying car in four years of his career, for Hamilton I would say it's been six, maybe seven.
Lewis Hamilton still has time left and that might well give him the chance to bolster his claim, but for now at least I do not think he has passed Senna. The fact that he is even in this discussion means he deserves a great deal of credit and anyone who does not recognise his qualifying talent is absurd, but he's got a little way to go before he's the qualifying GOAT.
Join In
Comments (8)
"Nah, he's just lucky mate"
"He's got the best car so it's easy"
"He only gets pole because Bottas is his wingman"
Very good piece. Comparisons across eras are always tricky, but your simple analysis makes a decent effort. The bit I don't like is your almost disingenuous ending. On the basis of the criteria you apply, however long a dominant career HAM has ahead of him, he has no chance of catching, let alone surpassing Senna. On these criteria, Senna will likely remain untouched.
There are many drivers that will have pulverised very good teammates in head-to-head qualifying comparisons, whether or not achieving pole, and have decent claims to having being in cars incapable of achieving pole. This presents a fundamental flaw, as you point out yourself in Senna's Toleman years. The case for HAM's being the best qualifier of his generation is a very strong one, but GOAT arguments that reach across eras so diverse in talent and machinery are ultimately subjective at their core.
To be fair, can’t argue with any of that
As a Hamilton hater, I was really upset by that. And as I watched the pole lap, I hate him even more now. What a legendary lap that was, I have to admit. Never seen anyone take the Anderson bridge so smoothly.
And, those Senna facts make me a bit happier now.
I also don't like Hamilton. The lap was amazing, but the fact that everyone compares him to Senna really angers me. I grew up with Senna as a hero and the two drivers are just on completely different levels.
Two things you haven't addressed here are the differing formats of qualifying and amount of data shared between drivers now, which means that there is less opportunity to put the perfect lap in now and that your team mate can see better where their team mate is gaining time, making it easier for another driver to be as quick. Bearing those things in mind I think Lewis is at least on par with Senna, if not better.
I feel like there's a sense Senna is untouchable, because of what happened, and the fact he drove 25 years ago. It's a but like Pele in football. In people's minds, no one will ever be as good. But I think Hamilton is right up there.