Political post lol

How voter fraud changes elections in a third world country

44w ago

So, in 2015 Mexico overwent a federal electoral law reform that allowed for ballot initiatives, and the first of the sort to have been approved was proposed earlier this year; a referendum on whether a transitional justice court should be set up to analyze the things that have occurred since the dirty war of the 1990s in Mexico. The supreme court authorized the ballot initiative on dubious grounds, and had to massage the original question of "Should former presidents be investigated" into something completely different in order for it to be "legal." It is a duty of the supreme court to do so, but they could've also refused to allow the ballot initiative in the first place.

Anyway, It was the President who requested this initiative. You can get it the hard way; through gathering the equivalent of 2% of the nominal voter roll to sign the petition, or you can get the house of representatives to send it. Mexico's electoral authority, INE, is tasked with investigating how many of the 2.5 million signatures they got were real, and, um, the results sound interesting.

What the tweet says, basically, is that out of the 2.5 million signatures, more than 400,000 were invalidated for various reasons. Which can happen; when you're getting signatures out on the street you can't really know whether the people signing have nefarious objectives or are simply ignorant of the requirements. But the interesting thing arises when looking at the signatures rejected for the typical reasons some Americans claim massive voter fraud in the US.

In particular, people who have duplicated registrations made up only 619 people, those with conflicting addresses were only 91, and those who were registered and already died were 5,530.

The bulk of the people who were rejected would've been rejected at a polling site, since the rejections arise from not being in the voter rolls, or because of an expired voter ID. In the end, of a process carried out in the fucking streets by party officials with no formal training by INE or capacity to verify the validity of voters, they found around 0.24% of signatures cast were nefarious in the ways some are worried about in the US.

According to The Guardian, the closest state in the American election is Georgia, where Biden leads by 0.3% and a hand recount was requested. Keep in mind the ballot initiative was a unilateral process; not an election. So, in a bipartisan election supposing both sides tried to commit some fraud (either officially, or unofficially) the amount of people available to sway the vote are still far too few.

So, in conclusion, I think Americans should see the results of this investigation by INE as encouraging, if such a chaotic process as the ballot initiative approval here was carried out with such little fraud, and fraud that was detected ultimately, there's very little to worry about in American polling sites which are secured by multiple agencies and observed by dozens of experts each.

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Comments (7)

  • Funny, when I saw "third world country" I half-expected some US states/regions.

    And 99% chance that BMW will never have its turn signals activated once someone takes delivery.

      10 months ago
    • I'm just trying to exacerbate the extent to which the idea that voter fraud is massive is so ridiculous.

        10 months ago
    • Nobody claiming it can provide any proven or statistically significant data. Speaks volumes. Also amusing that those claiming it are also huge fans of gerrymandering and voter suppression.

        10 months ago
  • What I’m entertained by is the Republican run executive branch here in GA has put in a fairly robust system to administer elections. I think they have recognized that the margins were going to get tight due to demographic shifts. With all the gerrymandering and voter suppression that they have done they wanted to be sure that all their votes counted. What happens then if the other side gets more votes? You are stuck. www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/politics/georgia-secretary-of-state-lindsey-graham-ballots-cnntv/index.html

      10 months ago
  • .3% is a LOT of votes to reverse. Because if something unprecedented happened and .5% of votes (a huge number) were invalidated, .4% (or so, I can't be bothered to do the math) would have to have been false votes for Biden for it to overturn the state. It's basically impossible. So 1 in 200 votes is being thrown out and like 80% of those are for Biden? It's pretty absurd and if it happened would have been more surprising than Biden taking the state in the first place.

      10 months ago