The future of transport: 10 things we learned

There's a saying that the more you learn about something, the more stupid you feel. But as I made my way into a chat about the future of transport, a Shoreditch-based event hosted by Shell, I felt massively out of my depth.

Sure, I've written about autonomous cars, electric vehicles (EV), sci-fi transport solutions, public transport, infrastructure and flying cars for longer than I would like to admit, but there is a big difference between commentating on the here-and-now and predicting the future.

All I know is that the 'disruption ahead' tagline for the event felt poignant and Shell knows this better than most. Electric car sales are accelerating globally, with tighter emissions regulation, high fuel prices and climate concerns all playing a role.

Thankfully for oil and gas giant, the company is already knee-deep in diversification.

The fact that Shell is going full steam ahead with adding electric car chargers to its petrol station forecourts is indicative of the shift, but there is a flip side, too, which should be acknowledged and that change takes time.

"There is a tendency on the part of many to look at a clean energy world, compare it with the status quo and, not surprisingly, opt for the former," commented David Hone, Shell's climate advisor.

"What is forgotten is the transition required to get from A to B. For example, there is a significant material challenge to put one billion EVs on the road. That potentially represents a century of production for a material such as cobalt, which isn’t abundant and exists largely in the DRC. Doubtless these issues will be solved, but doing so will take time and innovation."

Difficult or not, the transition seems to be taking hold. Is Shell worried, though?

"Shell is a major energy company and has thrived on transition, volatility and change for nearly 120 years," Hone added. "We are a company founded by traders, with trading at our core. Innovation and science have long been part of the company DNA. The future energy system could well be one based more on trade, science and innovation. I think that suits Shell."

What does the future hold and what changes are likely to happen when it comes to getting from A to B? Four experts from very different (and often opposing) perspectives were brought in to discuss just that, including flying Uber taxis, whether we should be cycling more and what can be done to keep motorists from spending as much time in traffic.

But before we get to that, allow me to introduce said experts who joined the chair of the panel Edith Bowman – of BBC Radio 1, 2 and 6 fame – for the discussion.

Jamie Bartlett

If you want to talk to anyone about how times are changing, whether that is in terms of technology, politics or social movement, Jamie Bartlett has a lot to say. He's written various books about where the world is going, including Radicals: Outsiders Changing the World, and was the presenter for the BBC series, Secrets of Silicon Valley.

Fred Jones

Representing Uber, one of the most disruptive transport apps out there, is Fred Jones. He is Head of Cities in the UK and Ireland, as well as in charge of overseeing the growth of Uber into electric vehicles.

Eugena Ossi

Eugena Ossi specialises in using big data and code to understand and then address the problems of transport in bus urban areas. Urban living and the future of transportation are two of her main interests.

Christian Wolmar

You may know Christian Wolmar from his attempt at running for London Mayor in 2016. He is also a journalist, railway historian and a commentator on all things transport – and has been for more than 25 years. He also wrote the book, Driverless Cars: On a Road to Nowhere.

Yes, he's sceptical.

Here are the hot topics from the talk.

1) Flying Ubers could be a thing

The idea of a self-driving Uber is hard to imagine, but what about a self-flying Uber? According to Fred Jones, it is on the cards. In fact, he says testing will begin as early as 2020, although didn't go into too much detail.

The benefits of a flying Uber include fewer traffic jams (on the ground, at least), but then imagine the aerial chaos with hundreds of Ubers flying around, not to mention the increased likelihood of it raining kebabs on a Friday night.

2) Cycling will play a big role

Whatever your views are on wearing lycra in public, the panel agreed that cycling is a viable travel solution that improves fitness and reduces nasty emissions, both of which would likely have the knock-on effect of reducing the strain on the already heavily strained NHS.

There is, of course, the small matter of building cycle-friendly paths such as those seen in Copenhagen and Stockholm to improve safety levels, which will be difficult in London's denser, more populated cityscape.

And there are, of course, times when a bicycle just won't cut it, such as that day you decide to buy a new sofa. Or overdo it at Ikea (you can never have too many coffee tables).

If everyone cycled, though, that would mean there is no need for fuel, which in turn would reduce the issue of harmful local emissions. Electric vehicles will also go some way towards reducing emissions but the impact on the national grid also has to be taken into account.

Hone added: "At this stage it isn’t clear how this will impact demand. Although it represents additional demand, the distribution throughout the day isn’t obvious. Will this manifest as high demand at certain peak points, or extra demand during night-time, when people charge at home and demand is typically below capacity.

"Governments may use pricing and incentives to force this demand into existing low demand periods, with a view to have a low impact on capacity."

3) Fully autonomous cars may never happen

Audi is one of many manufacturers working on autonomous cars

Audi is one of many manufacturers working on autonomous cars

Despite what car manufacturers and tech companies tell you, there are many time-consuming hurdles that stand in the way of fully autonomous cars that need no input from a human to operate (aka level 5 autonomous cars).

The technology is already out there in various forms. Audi and Tesla, for instance, will handle motorway cruising without breaking a sweat, including if you get stuck in traffic. But whether it can reach level 5 is where opinion tends to split.

Bartlett believes the technology is the easy bit: "Driverless technology is coming, the speed of improvement is dramatic. Yes, there are technological problems, but I think it's almost inevitable."

He continued: "However, I think the technologies behind this massively underestimate the extent of frustration and anger that will be caused by people who work in the industry.

"The idea that we might have driverless vehicles, taxis, trucks on the road and everyone who works in that industry, which is millions of people – 3 per cent of Americans are involved in driving in one form or another – that they are just going to stand by and let this happen is ludicrous.

"There's going to be political uproar. Personally, I think the technology is going to dramatically outpace the regulations. It will be regulations that holds things up, but this may be a good thing.

"Technological change like this creates great winners and great losers and overall productivity might go up, overall wealth might go up, but it doesn't necessarily mean that those benefits are spread evenly."

Bartlett was also keen to point out another glaring issue with autonomous vehicles. "I was lucky enough to go in a driverless truck. I went for 120 miles in this enormous 150-tonne truck, which at the first corner I was absolutely petrified, I thought I was going to die."

"And it obviously just smoothly took the corner and pretty quickly I got very bored and by the end I was thinking, 'when is this journey going to end?' I'm very bored of this."

He also pointed out the fact that safety standards will be higher for an autonomous car. One high-profile death could see a major setback in convincing the public and authorities it is a good idea, even if the statistics show a human driver is less safe.

There is also the small matter of who pays for an autonomous car. Do you buy them as usual or rent them or are they paid for by companies and we use them as a taxi service? Wolmar, as you would expect from a guy who has written an entire book on their unlikelihood, pointed out a flaw in their use from Uber's perspective.

"Why [does Uber] want autonomous cars?" he said. "At the moment, you have owner drivers so the owner drivers pay most of the costs of what [Uber] is providing. If you had autonomous cars, who will have to pay for them? Uber already loses £4billion a year, that would mean losing masses more if it actually had to buy the cars."

4) Ride sharing is a good thing (according to Uber)

As petrolheads, it pains us to say that we should forgo our motoring pleasures entirely. But for inner-city life it could make life better for everyone, given that the commute is usually laden with traffic and rarely fun to drive in.

"[Uber] is all about how it can reduce individual costs, how can we convince people to leave the keys at home and take an Uber, walk, take public transport and the only way to do that is to offer a reliable and affordable alternative," Jones said.

"Without it, you're going to choose to drive and obviously that creates pollution, congestion and a huge amount of land that's just wasted on parking in city centres. If we could remove all that, it would cut congestion, free up land to do much better things, whether that is parks, more housing, space for charging electric vehicles," he added.

But as Wolmar countered, many people aspire to owning a car (especially as owning a house is less likely than ever) and would the average motorist want random people in their car? Assuming they turn up on time, if at all.

5) Expect a lot more electric car chargers

Home chargers make life easier, but there is also a need for more of them around the UK

Home chargers make life easier, but there is also a need for more of them around the UK

You may have read that electric cars reached two per cent of all new car sales in the UK in the first quarter of 2018. That is by no means a great deal, more like a slither, but continued growth at that rate would mean the combustion engine is heavily challenged within the next decade or two.

To cope with this increased demand, Tesla is slapping up superchargers left, right and centre and, of course, petrol stations are weighing in on the action, too.

"Ultimately convenience will bring customers to our forecourts for EV charging, however we also have options for our customers to charge at home or at their place of work," commented Vicky Boiten-Lee, Shell General Manager for Fuels, Forecourt and Pricing.

She continued: "Shell operates 30,000 private electric charge points for homes and businesses in The Netherlands, Germany, France and the UK following the recent acquisition of New Motion, one of Europe’s largest charging providers."

What would happen if everyone used an electric car in a country such as the UK, where there are millions of people? Would governments have to make up the lost oil revenues with tax on electric and is there enough power to go around?

These are things neither the panel of guests nor Shell could predict, but Hone believes the electric car will be one of many transport solutions going forward:

"I believe future drivers will be faced with a myriad of options for how they choose to get from A to B – beyond just standard battery electric vehicles. People’s decisions will be influenced by the type of journeys they take, where they live and what powertrain is most convenient for them.

"Of course legislation, fiscal incentives and cost will all play a role in shaping consumer behaviour and choices," he added.

6) Fewer young people will be driving

"What do you mean I can't reach the pedals?"

"What do you mean I can't reach the pedals?"

16 per cent of 16 to 35-year-olds aspire to own a car, according to a survey, which is a fact reflected in the number of young people bothering to pass their test. This is a bad thing if you are part of the industry, especially if making cars is how you pay the bills.

There are various reasons for this, including a surge in eco-friendliness, ever-increasing living costs versus stagnating salaries and that running a car, insurance and all, continues its march from ridiculous to unaffordable for the average 17-year-old.

The flip-side of this will be a reduction in the need for parking, which would free up land for other stuff. More parks, for instance, or more likely new housing (that will undoubtedly cost an arm and a leg).

7) Suburban areas will still get the bad end of the stick

It's all well and good getting people out of a vehicle, however, there are obviously limitations to this. Not just in terms of accessibility for the elderly and disabled, even for deliveries, but it also depends on where you live. A car is essential for those who live in rural areas where bus services are few and far between, assuming there is one at all.

"People living in suburbs are not going to buy [the Uber model]... If you live in the suburbs or rural areas you'll never get enough Uber drivers to the guy who lives five miles outside of Woking in Surrey," Wolmar argued.

These are things neither the panel of guests nor Shell could predict, but Hone believes the electric car will be one of many transport solutions going forward:

Perhaps not, but Jones argues that improvements in technology could improve the situation: "I think there will always be a situation where it is or isn't profitable to run a service. But I do think what the autonomous technology enables us to do is push that boundary out further.

"There won't be a silver bullet that solves everything but I do think there is an opportunity there that can be met with some innovation."

"I believe future drivers will be faced with a myriad of options for how they choose to get from A to B – beyond just standard battery electric vehicles. People’s decisions will be influenced by the type of journeys they take, where they live and what powertrain is most convenient for them.

8) Uber habits are shifting

Uber: The bane of the cabby's life

Uber: The bane of the cabby's life

Critics were quick to say the likes of 'night tube' (tube services that run a lot later at night at the weekend) and more frequent bus services would damage Uber, but Jones says he has seen a shift in behaviour.

"What we saw in the first six weeks of the night tube is a dramatic decrease in people requesting Uber right in the city centre, where they normally would. But actually a corresponding increase at the end of the line," Jones explained.

"So what people have been doing, probably because it is cheaper and maybe a bit quicker, is they are getting the tube most of the way and then using Uber to fill that first and last mile to get home and we have seen that grow over time," he added.

9) 'Big data' could be the key to solving congestion

Looking at the way transport systems run is one way to see how things could be made more efficient. The problem is that all the data needed to analyse London (or any city for that matter) requires serious computing and brain power.

But what are the actual benefits beyond making life a bit quicker for everyone? Ossi says, "Take Transport for London (TfL), for example. When you open up your data for analysis, first you save tons of money. TfL published a report that said it saved £130 million in doing so."

Not exactly small change, then, and the benefits could be amplified if all transport companies had access to the same data and potentially even the same resources. How can a city really solve its transport issues if nobody is sharing their findings?

There is also the potential for useful apps to make use of big data. In fact, the CityMapper app exists purely because TfL made part of its data accessible to external developers.

"Opening the data would allow developers to make tools (such as TubeMap) that could make getting from A to B more efficient," she continued. Being gently notified or guided around a seriously delayed tube service, for instance, would ease the strain at stations ─ and reduce dreaded commuter rage.

The problem is that there are so many similar transport apps out there, but that is actually a good thing. "If you have a lot of apps, that means people are interacting with the data, thinking about new things and how to use them, trying to create new apps or services for problems that actually exist."

10) The road to change will be a slow one

Making electric cars cheaper will be important for the success of EVs

Making electric cars cheaper will be important for the success of EVs

Now, before you sell your car, buy a bicycle and sample a flying Uber, cool your jets. Bartlett believes that any change in city transport will happen slowly. You need only look back at how long it has been since we rode around on horses for proof.

"There is a saying in technology, that we tend to overestimate what happens in the short term but underestimate what happens in the long term," Bartlett said. "[The change] probably won't be as much as people predict. I think a lot of these things are a lot slower than the hype suggests."

Speed aside, the transition is never going to be like a light switch. Off with the combustion engine, on with electrification. Shell knows this, as Hone explained. "We are not ‘backing one horse for the future’ and as such we are active in the development of H2, biofuels and LPG, as well as electric."

It seems, then, the dream of cruising around on hoverboards or in mini spaceships, Jetsons style, is still a way off and that predicting the future of transport was never going to be easy.

But in some ways this is no bad thing, because if we have flying cars, someone will have to invent flying petrol stations, surely?

"We used to have a floating petrol station in Brunei, but this was floating on water, to serve fishing boats," Boiten-Lee said. "Our new forecourt prototypes don’t yet include designs for a petrol station floating in the air, but you never know what the future may bring."

If you'd like to listen to the full podcast of the 'Disruption Ahead' evening that inspired this article, click the link below: