Vettel will leave Ferrari at the end of the season, where will he go?

NOTE: The article has been updated since the news was confirmed this morning.

Now officially confirmed by Ferrari, the four-time world champion will leave the Scuderia at the end of the season after six years with the team.

Vettel was apparently unhappy with the new one-year deal he was offered by the team, as it not only came with a significant pay cut but also a potential 'second driver' role to his teammate Charles Leclerc. However, since Ferrari's intial confirmation, Vettel has argued against these rumours:

"In order to get the best possible results in this sport, it's vital for all parties to work in perfect harmony," Vettel told the media.

"Financial matters have played no part in this joint decision. That's not the way I think when it comes to making certain choices and it never will be.

"What's been happening in these past few months has led many of us to reflect on what are our real priorities in life. One needs to use one's imagination and to adopt a new approach to a situation that has changed. I myself will take the time I need to reflect on what really matters when it comes to my future."

I think this raises more questions than it answers. Who would replace Vettel at Ferrari? Would Vettel move to another team, or would he choose to retire from the sport? Will his replacement be forced to play second fiddle to Leclerc?

Let's have a look at why this might happen and how it could play out.

Why is Vettel leaving Ferrari?

Credit: Autosport

Credit: Autosport

The early reports are suggested that Vettel is unhappy with the new contract that Ferrari have offered him. This is because they are mainly focusing on just a one year deal, whereas not too long ago they re-signed Leclerc for five more years until 2024.

Although Vettel is only 33, in recent years he seems to have lost his touch and has made silly mistakes time and time again. One of the most memorable mistakes has to be his disastrous race in Monza, where he span at the Ascari chicane and then collided with Lance Stroll when rejoining the circuit. This all happened in a race where Leclerc held off attacks from both Mercedes drivers to win at Ferrari's home race, in front of the Tifosi.

Leclerc hugely impressed the team last year in his first season alongside the German. The new contract could mean that Vettel would slip further into a 'number 2' role in the team, with a reduced salary to add insult to injury.

However, since the team confirmed the news, Vettel has that there was 'no longer a desire to work together'. This could support the rumours that he was unhappy with his position within the team since Leclerc joined.

Scenario 1: Vettel retires from F1

This might be the least likely option for Vettel if he leaves Ferrari at the end of the season, but I would not rule it out completely. Vettel has never been shy to talk about his interests outside of the sport, with him saying just a few months ago that he might go back to school and study mechanical engineering when he decides to hang up his gloves.

“Before I started professionally, and before I started my career, when I finished high school, I was planning to go to university and study mechanical engineering," he told PlanetF1.

“So, probably, it is something that I can think of. I’ve developed a lot of other interests in the meantime, but still it’s always something that fascinates me – to know and understand how things work."

I could understand him wanting to walk away from the sport if he can't find a competitive drive, as although I'm sure he will not be short of offers I doubt that he will receive any from Mercedes or Red Bull. You do have to ask, would he be happy fighting for the lower points positions after spending most of his career fighting for podiums and wins?

Scenario 2: Vettel moves to another team

I think that this would be the most likely option, especially given the regulation overhaul that's scheduled for 2022. These rule changes, which include a budget cap, have the potential to shake up the grid and aim to make the sport fairer and more affordable for all teams.

The two teams that Vettel would most likely move to are Renault and McLaren. This is because that although they are a team with a lot of history, moving to Williams would be too great a risk given their performance in recent years. AlphaTauri (the team that Vettel made his debut for) will only promote from within, and Haas and Alfa Romeo are just too far off the pace (not to mention their links with Ferrari).

The only other credible option would be the team currently known as Racing Point, as they will be rebranded as Aston Martin for 2021. I see this as unlikely as although they have now got proper funding, Sergio Perez is locked in and Lance Stroll's father owns the team. There probably won't be a change of drivers there for some time.

Daniel Ricciardo is reportedly unhappy at Renault, as the team have failed to progress up the grid since he joined the team in 2019. This would leave a seat free at the French team, and they would certainly have the budget to afford the German's salary given what they are currently paying Ricciardo.

Although McLaren do not have a free seat at the moment, it is rumoured that Ferrari are interested in Carlos Sainz. If the Spaniard was to move to the Prancing Horse, then this would obviously make room for Vettel join Lando Norris at the British team.

I think that the more likely move for Vettel would be to go to Renault, as I think they would not only be more willing to pay his high salary but also to offer him a long term deal. I could be wrong, but I see the French team as the more likely option.

Who would replace Vettel at Ferrari?

The way I see it, there are three credible options sprinkled in with a few crazy suggestions.

Daniel Ricciardo

View gallery image

This is not the first time that Daniel Ricciardo has been linked to a move to Ferrari, but I think this time it could actually happen. This is because Ricciardo is apparently unhappy at Renault due to their current position, and is actively looking to move away from the French outfit when his contract expires at the end of 2020.

Just a couple of days ago Ricciardo was quoted by Radio 5 Live saying he believes he has the speed to win a world championship, but it is all about being in the right team at the right time.

"The challenge is to position yourself with the best team at that moment and when rule changes come in, it’s, like, is that still the right team to be with, or are we missing something? Do we need to try to build on what we’ve got here?

"It’s kind of like chess a lot of the time. I wish it was black and white and everyone had the same and we could go and see who was the best, but that is not how it works. But I do feel that the best will always find a way to make it to the top."

I agree that Ricciardo has the talent to win a world championship and although Ferrari haven't won one for quite a while, they have more of a chance than most at producing a car that's capable of it. The only question is whether Ferrari would want to pair a driver such as Ricciardo with Leclerc, with the risk that they will come to blows as they fight for the number one position within the team.

Lastly, I'm not sure how much of a factor this is for Ferrari, but Ricciardo does have Italian heritage. That definitely can't hurt his chances of securing the seat.

Carlos Sainz

Credit: SoyMotor

Credit: SoyMotor

As I mentioned previously, it has been rumoured that the Scuderia are interested in signing Carlos Sainz from McLaren. This comes after the Spaniard had an amazing 2019 season to catapult himself up to being one of the most highly regarded drivers on the grid.

I think that Sainz is perfectly happy with his seat at McLaren (especially considering they are moving back to Mercedes engines), but I also don't think he could refuse the chance to go to Ferrari. This is because if he did make the move he would almost have a guarantee of fighting for race wins, with this only being a long-term goal at McLaren.

Martin Brundle was full of praise for Sainz in a recent interview, and also believes that Sainz would be a good fit at the Italian team.

“I think he’s got his dad’s kind of sporting winning mentality — a double World Rally Champion of course, his dad. I think Sainz was very close [in performance] to [Max] Verstappen when they were at Toro Rosso. It got political."

It also makes sense on Ferrari's behalf, as Sainz will be significantly cheaper to sign that Ricciardo would be. However, they would again be faced with the same issue as Sainz would not back down and be a 'number 2' driver to Leclerc.

Sainz himself also commented on the situation, saying that he likes to stay out of the rumours: "I try to stay out of it quite a bit because obviously there is too much free time and too much time to read things. I trust my abilities as a driver. I think last year as you know I took a very important step forward, and whether it be in a Ferrari, a Mercedes or a McLaren I think I am capable of doing very good things, I don’t think you should have any doubts about that.”

Antonio Giovinazzi

Credit: EssentiallySports

Credit: EssentiallySports

I think that for a lot of people, Antonio Giovinazzi would be the most obvious choice. This is because he has been a part of the Ferrari young driver programme for a number of years, and was then placed into his current seat at Alfa Romeo by the Scuderia.

Earlier in the season, the Italian driver was quizzed about his future ambitions in the sport: “I know it and I won’t hide: driving Ferrari has always been my dream.

"If I look back and see when I was young I always had a red tracksuit and it’s great to be in the mix for a seat in Ferrari – but now it’s all up to me. If I have a good season I can really fulfil my dream and finally drive a Ferrari.”

I think Ferrari will be keen to see how Giovinazzi performs this season, after a pretty unimpressive debut season alongside Kimi Raikkonen. There were moments where he showed good pace, but in no way was it as impressive as Leclerc a year prior.

Weirdly, this may appeal to the bosses at Ferrari based on what I have said about Ricciardo and Sainz: Giovinazzi would be a pretty good 'number 2' alongside Leclerc. He would most likely fill the same role as his current teammate Raikkonen did in his final few years at the team, scoring a decent amount of points but never really butting heads with the star driver.

Another benefit of this move would be a space being made at Alfa Romeo for their other young driver, Mick Schumacher. I think it is a case of when, not if he arrives at that team.

And you never know, the prospect of an Italian driver in an Italian team may be a bigger factor than we think.

Mick Schumacher

Credit: Autosport

Credit: Autosport

I think this is one of the crazier suggestions that I've seen pop up online. I really, don't see this happening, but you can never say never.

Now let's be clear, I am in no way doubting the talent that Mick Schumacher clearly possesses. However, he didn't have a crazily impressive year in Formula 2 (unlike Leclerc), and he is much more suited to the Alfa Romeo seat. This is because as we saw with Pierre Gasly, when a driver is catapulted to the top of the sport so quickly it can do more harm than good. All eyes would be on him at Ferrari, criticisng every little mistake.

Ferrari's team principal Mattia Binotto is also on record saying that 2021 would be too early for Schumacher, but that he is a good candidate for F1 in the future.

"We are expecting much from him next year because he will have one season of experience and we are pretty sure he's a good candidate for F1 in the future. 2021 will be too early for one of our young talents, too.

"In 2021 some experience from drivers will be important because it's a completely new type of car."

Fernando Alonso

Credit: EssentiallySports

Credit: EssentiallySports

Fernando Alonso is another wildcard candidate for the seat, especially given his history with the team, but again you can never say never.

He told Autosport: “What I miss about Formula 1 is the precision work with the engineers and the optimisation around the races,” he said.

“But not the travelling, the consecutive races and only one team dominating. Inside I still feel like an F1 driver, it's a championship that I like and in which I know I can give my best.

Alonso has made his intentions to rejoin the grid when the new regulations come into force quite clear, but with the condition that it is with a team that can fight for the title. However, despite his obvious talent and reputation as one of the best drivers in the world, he is known to cause problems.

He fell out in a big way with Lewis Hamilton and Ron Dennis at McLaren in 2007, walked away from Ferrari on pretty bad terms, and then fell out with Honda on his return to McLaren in 2015. It is no secret that Alonso can be a liability for a team on the PR side of things.

He would also demand a large pay check for his services, so although many would like to see the double world champion return I think that it is highly unlikely, especially with Ferrari.

Nico Hulkenberg

Credit: MomentoGP

Credit: MomentoGP

I would not say that Nico Hulkenberg is a likely option for Ferrari, but I don't think that I would put it in the 'crazy' section either. This is because if you look at it, choosing Hulkenberg would actually be a pretty sensible choice.

When the time comes around, Hulkenberg will only have been out of the sport for one season, and has made his desire to return pretty clear: “I’m very much up for it, that’s still my goal, my aim, but at the moment It’s tricky to say, a lot of factors in there – and now everything’s upside down anyway", Hulkenberg told the Formula 1 website.

“I’m staying in contact with people anyway. It’s early. If there’s a chance, I’ll grab it. If it’s a good opportunity and something that really excites me and gets me going then definitely, I will push for that.”

Ferrari would be able to count on Hulkenberg playing the team game when he needs to, but I think he would be able to challenge Leclerc on some weekends. I don't think he would be enough of a threat to worry the Monegasque driver, but he would keep him on his toes and be a good 'number 2'.

Who is most likely to get the seat?

If I were to put money on who will get the seat alongisde Leclerc, I would be hard pushed to choose between Ricciardo and Sainz. I don't think that it would be Giovinazzi unless he is massively impressive when the season eventually gets underway.

As things stand now, I think that it will be Carlos Sainz that gets the drive. This is because he is not only substantially cheaper than Ricciardo to employ, I also think he was the more impressive driver in 2019. Don't get me wrong, Ricciardo is a superb driver, but I think Sainz stoodout amonst the midfield as he was incredibly consistent and showed excellent racecraft throughout the whole year.

I can see Ricciardo filling the empty space at McLaren, as they could be primed to pose a serious threat to the top three teams when the new regulations come into play. The team as a whole seems to be on the up, and they have the added bonus of a Mercedes engine supply coming their way. I think Ricciardo's personality would also suit McLaren more than it would Ferrari, as he already has a good relationship with the 'meme lord' of Formula 1, Lando Norris.

As for Giovinazzi, I see another few years at Alfa Romeo coming his way. However, I do believe that this will be alongside Schumacher. I think that Kimi Raikkonen will decide to retire at the end of next season when his contract with the team expires.

Fernando Alonso and Nico Hulkenberg may or may not find their way back onto the grid, but I think Hulkenberg has a better chance and I hope that he does find a seat. I am of the opinion that sadly Alonso's F1 career is over, as a top team is unlikely to offer him a seat and he has made it clear that would be the only offer he would accept.

What do you think?

What do you think? I've included two polls below so that you can have your say, and also make sure to leave a comment - I'll try to reply to all of them.

Also, sorry for the long gap between articles (I think it was nearly a year ago?). I've been really busy in the past year with university and other things, but I'm going to try and post more on here. I won't make any promises as to how much, but I will say that you won't have to wait a year for the next one!