When Should Hamilton Take His Power Unit Penalty?
The 20 place grid drop is inevitable - but is the right time right now?
Some would say the biggest benefactor of the incredible Russian GP was Lewis Hamilton; after all the unexpected rain led to his unprecedented 100th victory, snatched at the death from a valiant Lando Norris.
But instead it was Max Verstappen - who would have thought at the beginning of the weekend that he, with a combined 23-place grid drop and a Mercedes track, would have ended up on the podium?
An inspired strategy called helped him out from what was a difficult race, loitering in the bottom end of the points as his medium compound tyres struggled to work with the RB16B. This was an incredible piece of damage limitation from an unlikely starting position; one that his title rival must, sooner or later, face too.
But Why Does Hamilton Have to Take a Power Unit?
Hamilton took his third and final PU at Spa with 10 rounds left. Roughly half a season. This means it was always pretty unlikely that he would have made it all the way to Abu Dhabi without taking another one; and this was all but confirmed in Zandvoort when his first set gave up.
Usually teams alternate between older and newer engines during a race weekend, utilising worn components in less crucial phases (i.e. during practice sessions when they're still honing in on the ideal setup) but more powerful iterations during qualifying and the race.
So having one less PU to play with, as is Hamilton's situation, puts more strain on the other two, making a fourth power unit even more urgent. Theoretically it may be just about possible to make it to the season finale with three, but you would have to sacrifice performance, in the guise of power modes, to get there - and even then there is a big risk of DNFing as the wear accumulates more and more. Overtaking would be extremely difficult and since that's already a weak point of the W12, it would be unwise to exacerbate the issue.
It is, therefore, a better strategy to compromise one race weekend to make the rest more competitive.
SO... WHEN?
Turkey, maybe.
Toto Wolff has said there is a possibility it could happen as soon as in a few days; indeed Ferrari's Carlos Sainz has opted to do so for Istanbul and that may tempt Mercedes into doing the same. It could rain come Sunday and that would certainly play into their hands as a mixed up race in mixed up conditions would, with the right calls, help Hamilton - who is himself a Rainmaster.
The track itself is a difficult one to call - it's a mix of infamous high speed corners and twisty low speed sections which benefit Mercedes and Red Bull respectively. This makes it difficult to judge who will have the edge, and this is crucial for Mercedes seeing as they could copy Red Bull's strategy of taking the PU at a track where their opponent is stronger, thereby maximising damage limitation. Without that certainty the decision is that much harder to make.
They could, of course, wait until FP3 or even qualifying (á la Bottas) to choose, but that adds unpredictability which, for the highly simulated world of Formula One, is taboo.
The Night Sky, featuring Mercedes Stars
COTA represents Mercedes' other option - starting from the back at a track where they're strong and seeing just how far up they can make it. But that comes with the cost of sacrificing a potential race victory which, in a season as tight as this, could make all the difference.
What could strengthen the case for taking the PU a little later on is potential upgrades; Mercedes are hoping to introduce reliability improvements that aren't quite ready yet and would have to wait until after Turkey. It would also mean the power advantage would be more significant come the end of the season, and The Yas Marina Circuit isn't exactly the easiest place to overtake around.
Hunting down Max Verstappen for a race victory and title with a few extra horsepower in the bag certainly wouldn't hurt...
Victory doughnuts, but for which driver in 2021?
Knife edge decision, knife edge title.
And in a title fight like this, these things really are what make the difference.
How will Mercedes play this? I can't wait to find out.
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